04 January, 2010

Lim Peh

YPAP member: “Blame on your karma or your forefathers…”

Screenshot from YPAP Network Facebook

In case you can’t see it, here is what was posted by Eric How:

Kojat and Friends,

I am not mocking you guys on being banned on your own home ground. In fact, do not think that you can hide behind the keyboard doing all those weird stunts like posting pics of our members etc. I will be monitoring you guys and just be careful if you did infringe any copyrights materials.

Do not be bitter and go on slapping on the Government senselessly because you did not get any fruits or benefits from your forefather. You will have to blame on your karma or your forefathers for not getting all the paths right for their off springs. My folks did the right thing by getting all the stuffs ready for us and we will never ever need to nag about the Government giving jobs to foreigners instead of locals. In fact, we create jobs for others. Our folks even make sure that we guys do not need to squeeze into public transport by getting each of us a personal car.

The job market is an open competition whereby the best person gets the job and not because of nationalities. Buck up and do something right for you’re off springs so that they will be thankful to you and not turn up to be like you guys nagging senselessly.

From: The Online Citizen.

05 january 2010

Up Up And Away...

High HDB prices driven by speculators, hurting genuine home seekers

From: The Online Citizen


The following is a letter to the Today newspaper by Mr See Leong Kit which was “rejected for publication.”

Your report “Asset that keeps growing” (TODAY Dec 30) highlighted Minister Mah Bow Tan’s simplistic and optimistic view that HDB flat values will always go up.

Home prices in Singapore have become “ridiculously-high” for private property and “sky-high” for HDB flats.

Is it financially prudent for our young couples to start their marriage saddled with huge housing debts for something as basic as a roof over their heads?

The broader issue is that land-scarce Singapore must have proper policies to promote an “orderly” property market that is sustainable by economic growth, real demand and especially rising incomes. Such a market with gradual capital appreciation will benefit many Singaporeans from successive generations.

Whereas a “speculative” property market of sky-high prices is largely driven by speculators out to make a quick buck by “flipping a property”. But when the Property Bubble finally burst, both speculators and genuine home owners will be hurt by rapidly falling property values.

During our 1994 Property Bull Run, prices of both private and HDB properties were rising at 30% per annum for three years in a row. But since when has our economy as well as our salaries grow at such a phenomenal rate?

Our 2007 Property Bull Run lasted only nine months, cut short by the US sub-prime housing bubble turning into a Global Financial Crisis that brought recession and job losses to Singapore. But during that nine months, average freehold property value in our East Coast area doubled from $700 psf to $1400 psf.

A property may be “an asset that can be monetised”, but it can also end up as a millstone around one’s neck. High property prices will affect the average Singaporean as follows:

> As a home-buyer. Is it wise to sink so much of your hard-earned monies in a brick-and-cement house with little left over for your children’s upbringing, your own healthcare and retirement needs in old age?

> As an employee. If your employer has to pay high office rent out of its operating budget, can it afford to pay you a better salary,increment and bonus?

> As a consumer. If a shopkeeper or supermarket operator has to pay high commercial rent, will it not charge you higher prices for goods and services?

Finally, two pertinent questions for HDB flat-owners:

Are there not more important things in life, such as good health, close family ties and well brought-up children than this materialistic addiction to “HDB Upgrading Carrots” and “my HDB flat is worth a lot”?

Should you die suddenly from an accident or heart attack, can you take your high-valuation upgraded HDB flat along with you to the next world?

05 January 2010

02 January, 2010

The begining of a new reality


Some interesting responds from the TOC readers. There were 48 comments (and counting) at the time of this writing. I have extracted a few salient ones, un-edited from two respondants which, best summaried my thought on the subject of "...the begining of a new reality."

First, comment by Akazukin

#07
Hi all, I strongly wish to share my ideas across, my lack of English command might cause this to be anti-read proof.


First off, the government’s money is the people’s money. The money is to be used on Singapore’s growth – from police, firefighters to foreign relations. I don’t think anyone have to right to take the money to buy a house for themselves, or to donate it to someone they love. To donate some to neighbour countries when they are facing disaster, yes, that makes sense. It ensure our country’s reputation and growth in the long run. Should we face disaster, the other country donate to us in return.


The bank, similiary, is also the people’s money. We could take a loan, but we must pay it back with interest. If we cannot expect the bank to donate and buy a house for us, How can we then expect to use the government’s money for ourselves? Is building a one-room flat considered a good progress for Singapore?


There are millions of Signaporeans. How many are actually willing to donate $10 to support the homeless? Truth is, not more than 20%. Everyone equally needs money. It is basic human rights. If they have $50 more today, they want to entertain themselves, get a new shoe, or buy a lottery. We cannot say that everyone is ‘bad’ by not donating. We will definately feel something when someone stole $10 or $50 from us. If we feel nothing, we can donate.


How would you feel when your money was taken by the government to buy KFC or McDonald to mr tan XX who is jobless? Won’t you feel pissed off? How about your money was being used to cover the expense of civil defence, development, and building the trust of foreign countries? won’t you feel proud?


It is very simple. The government tax the people so that they will have savings for development. They don’t tax the jobless. And they certaonly don’t tax everyone in order to give it to the poor. If they do, it is robbery.


The people’s money have a much more important usage. Stop looking at those giant figures and wonder why nobody give them to you. If you’re homeless and jobless, it is nobody to blame but yourself. If you think Singaporeans should support each other, You should work on getting donations for yourself, You should try to ask for money from door to door, and not looking and complaining about the collected tax paid by the people. It makes no sense.

#09
I suggest you all stop acting noble and upright. Imagine your 2% GST or income tax was all given to the old man to buy a house.


You’ll be pissed off.


And that old man was aiming at government’s money. It is your tax money.

#16
The problem is, many people are jealous of minister-level incomes. They then feel very discouraged in life. I work so hard to earn 800 hundred dollars, I must pay income tax, pay those people to get high salary.


And also about the giant savings the government had.


Like my argument above, it is to blame on yourself if you’re homeless. In this story, the old man chosed to work as a security guard, and when facing physical problems, he lost his job. What happened to simple McDonald counter service? what happened to the free old folks home offered to him? he refused.


Because why? throughout his life, he is aiming at the big money the government has. He lost respect to small incomes.


There are lots of 1-room flat, and the monthly bill to support it was only <200. But that guy wants the government to build FREE flats for the homeless.


And that money is our tax money.


It makes no sense to me.


I understand how everyone will hate my arguments, but I chose to write in this approach. Because I strongly believe that this "talking" is just a strong piece of white lie. In relaity, if you say Singaporeans should help each other, why don't you let the homeless move in and live with you? why don't you give $400 to the homless every month?


I feel that everyone is jealous of other people's money, which have led to a big mistake. Thus I strongly want to get my idea across. the government's savings is the people's tax for the country's growth. If you go to other country, you have to pay tax as their citizen as well. This ensure economy defense, if we have no savings, how are we going to compete with other countries in the long run?


He is homeless because he chose to be. He can give tuition , given his good level of English, he can do McDonalds, he can go old folks and play chinese chess, but he chose to be homeless, and he kept on dreaming about free houses, just because the government have some savings. Are we stupid enough to support this loser?

And here, in my view, is the respond that best expressed the sentiments of the majority of commentators:

Second, comment by Shan

#46
Hey Akazukin, you have garnered a lot of attention with what you’ve said. You have the right to voice out your views, no matter how heartless it may sound. There’s democracy within the people here and we still respect you.


You are still a human being like the rest of us and must have suffered much in your life. The fact that you say your salary is $800 a month means that you are struggling too. But $800 today cannot get you much so you must be getting help from somewhere. Do tell please. Is the government helping you? Are your relatives helping you? Where are you staying? What is your job? Do you think your efforts are only worth $800 a month?


The government here wants you to only subsist because if you were paid alot then you will be inclined to take breaks from work to enjoy life. If we all did that then the economy would slow down. Well, there’s nothing wrong with that; there’s always opportunity costs in whatever we do. ‘Breaks’ is a good opportunity cost. But it’s good for the people, not the government. The government want to pay themselves millions so they need you to work everyday till you are unable. Hence, they have policies that would not have you earn more than you need.


As for asking people to pay donations to help the poor, I think it’s not right, for we have done alot. Why is it that when there is a social problem the government directs them to the people on the street for help? We have been paying high prices for everything we buy and need : income taxes, transport fares, HDB prices and fees, rental spaces for businesses, road taxes, property taxes, fines for this and that..etc All these monies have been paid by us, so the government should use the money for uplifting society. Instead, they use it to pay themselves millions, and lose billions in bad investments. Still, no one gets punished for bad judement. If we make bad judgements, we are punished severly.


In short, Akazukin, we are pissed with the government for stealing our every breath. The groups of homeless people in Parks are the begining of a new reality. You just wait, Akazukin, there will be many more to come because people like you believe truly, eventhough you are one of the victims, that the government is doing a wonderful job.


We may become neighbours one day in Sembawang Park. Never know.

02 January 2010

A Happy New Year to one and all.

19 December, 2009

This is getting out of hand...

it's hilariously hilarious!

Lost in translation

Oh my God — literally. Conservapedia is trying to produce a “fully conservative translation” of the Bible — although “translation” seems to be a misnomer, since they’re apparently going to start with King James and fix it, rather than go back to the original texts.

getting to the best parts, read some commnet postings...

I’m waiting to see how the parabel of the “Good Samaritan” is re-written to express its “full free-market meaning” to avoid financial responsibility for the health care of others.
— M. Nelson

These are people who know God’s will far better than God.
— Jan Baer

I especially like guideline number 7:

Express Free Market Parables; explaining the numerous economic parables with their full free-market meaning

Remember Jesus’s rage against the temple merchants? How dare Jesus think that free-market competition at the temple did not end up with the best goods and services at the temple mount!
— edkw

Overheard in Texas, in my youth: “If the King James version was good enough for the Apostle Paul, it’s good enough for you.”
— James

In this the version where Jesus is a supply sider and marries Ayn Rand?
— rp

Blessed are they who hunger and thirst for capital gains tax reductions.”
-Republican Jesus
— Al R.

In this new version of the bible, Jesus asks the lepers what health care plan they’re on before he cures them.
— Tim

They will probably add how to protect the big corporations, how Christ favors no taxes, how there are no climate problems and many more :)
— Chris

A version prepared at the behest of an absolute monarch is too liberal for these guys. That says alot—about them!
— MinuteMan

Every time scripture is edited or re-written through the prism of man’s political worldview, we become subtly more and more aware that it is only man’s political worldview that has indeed ever been dictated as scripture.
— Valpey

Of course they’re going to put their own spin on it. I wonder how many people will look at their efforts and say “Right!, now bring me the real book.”

Due to the vagaries of life I’ve had occasion to learn a bit of Greek & Latin (mostly for taxonomic purposes) & amused myself at one point in that endeavor by reading the New Testament in both languages. The KJV may have bits wrong here & there, but not THAT wrong.

I feel that their attempts at “improving” will just obfuscate matters more … but I guess obfuscate is what they do best.
— Fred in Colorado

Yet another piece of evidence that the words “conservative” and “conserve” having nothing to do with each other.
— Bryan

Uh, there aren’t any “original texts.” A great deal of biblical scholarship is about trying to get as close to the originals as possible, but this is still a pretty long way in terms of time and iterations of the texts. For example, see Bart D. Ehrman, MIsquoting Jesus, for a popular account of the scholarship by a top scholar. Richard Elliott Friedman does something similar for Hebrew scripture.

Needless to say, the conservative agenda is beyond ridiculous from a scholarly point of view. It is purely propaganda for their curious ideology, which shows little in the way of historical roots.
— Tom Hickey

There are theological reasons to take a KJV update approach. Part of the mystique of the KJV was that it was an “inspired” work, allegedly produced with God’s direction and guidance, much as the Torah, while recounting events which its author according to tradition (Moses) could not have known but was allegedly inspired in writing from the prior oral and fragmentary tradition. A similar process blessed the finalization of the Biblical canon.

Skeptics, myself among them, have doubts about the usefulness of this approach, but it dos have some theological merit and precedent — many of the first vernacular Bibles were derived not from original sources, but from St. Jerome’s Latin Vulgate translation, and many more recent vernacular Bible translations (often partial) into lesser spoken languages outside Europe have used the KJV as a source.

Conservatives also have a barrier to working from the original sources. Most people today who have done the academic work necessary to read the texts in the original languages are, like most academics, more libeal than the Evangelical Christian laity. In contrast, the KJV translaters were, by contemporary standards, more theologically conservative.

Indeed, it is the direct access to the Bible that the KJV made widely available is one of the forces that made it possible for marginally educated evangelists, first in the Methodist movement and then in the Second Great Awakening that created what we know call Evangelical Christianity in the South in what had previous been the most secular part of the U.S. Fundamentalism in Christianity, with its strongy Biblical and literalist focus, is to a great extent a rejection of the gloss that more educated scholars put on Christianity through doctrine.
— ohwilleke

The bible may have been rewritten, but not a blatant attempt to change it so all that peace, love and forgiveness stuff can be toned down. These people are scary crazy.
— chris

Well, let’s see how that one develops. Self-proclaimed God’s lawyers usually end up being evil. We might be in 2009, but there are plenty of Inquisitors and Crusaders out there, not to mention a few KKK die-hards.

A former professor of religion suggested to me some 20 years ago the following scenario.

Jesus comes down to earth again, this time He visits New York City. He wants to see His Church. He opens a phone book at a public phone booth, looks for a church and surprise!, there are plenty of choices. “Where do I begin?”, Jesus says. He continues, “There are all sorts of churches with all sorts of names, all of them Christians. I think they mean by that that they are spreading my teachings and the love of our Father, but which one is my Church?” After a few weeks in the Big Apple, Jesus begins to wonder, do they all love God? And if so, why don’t some of those churches talk to each other? Why do some of their Christian followers simply hate each other so much?

…and now we are going to get another “new and improved” translation, with its self-proclaimed experts, interpreters, and, unavoidable, eventual earth-bound gate keepers. LOL!

Sadly, churches are like Cable TV or Satellite Dish: hundreds of options, some boring, some entertaining, some great, some disgusting, some profitable, some bankrupt, some center-left, some center-right, some extreme-left, some extreme-right, some open-minded, some close-minded, some egalitarian, some working-class, some ecumenical, and some just happen to be the right place for your heart! Professor, dealing with non-eternal economic matters is far more easier, safer, and educational than giving an opinion in an over-saturated field where every one with his or her bible feels like that they have Nobel Prize from God in religion interpretation.

Let’s stick to the numbers please. Thanks! I will pray for that.
— ANSFA

How can you change the literal words of God? Either the conservatives believe the bible is the word of God or they don’t.

If they do believe that then they are desecrating God’s words. Where are the OTHER conservative religions objections to this?

So it looks like what many of us have been saying, and illustrated by so many conservative scandals, that some conservatives use the bible for political gain when it suits them and ignore it when it doesn’t.

Now they are making a conservative “politically correct” version of the bible. Where’s the outrage? Hey PC police why are you ignoring this?

Hey Fox “News” where’s your “war on the bible” 24/7 coverage? Just think of the reaction if the liberals did this!
— J.H.

There’s King James and there’s whatever they are using. Judging from the excerpts I have seen, this is not the elegant King James version, possibly the Gideon Bible. Doesn’t ultimately matter since the point is to create a politically correct “Bible” of a modern GOP conservative slant. The whole idea is hilariously ridiculous especially since what we know of Jesus (Isa) is that he was a pretty radical guy who would be utterly condemned if he showed up at a Republican (or even “moderate” Democratic) gathering nowadays.
— Jim Tarrant

It’s a wiki project, which means that people are going to decide God’s will by popular vote.

It’s much easier to follow the rules if you write them yourself, I guess. What I don’t get is why they need a religion at all if they’re just making it up.
— Jennifer

After that lot have finished with the bible there is no chance that the meek will be inheriting the earth.
— Richard

“Prefer Conciseness over Liberal Wordiness: preferring conciseness to the liberal style of high word-to-substance ratio”

Because Conservatives have such a low word-to-substance ratio, just listen to one of Sarah Palin’s 90 minute speeches…
— Scott MacGregor

I assume that they will “clarify” God’s opinion on public healthcare options.
— Viktor

This is what George Orwell would have called an “ideological translation”
— Laurence

In the beginning, was the word… Reaganomics. And the Lord sayeth, it is good.
— Shane

I’d have to agree with nyet, based on what I’ve read from Ehrman, this is nothing particularly new. Whether part of an organized group effort or the work of an individual’s intent or error, the Bible has been undergoing revisions of varying levels of impact throughout its history.

It’ll be fascinating to see what they do…
— Rob Milcik

There are no original texts of the Bible. That’s the problem with it. We have extent copies of the originals that do not agree with each other. If only there were one canonical “original draft” of that darn book, I feel many lives would not have been wasted through the centuries.
— Joe J.

If they start from the King James Version I hope they keep the unicorns.
— AgnosticOracle

This one is seriously funny...

We are all sinnners. We need the Bible and other books that tell us of Gods and their relatives so that we may know how to live our lives.

Many parts of the Old Testament sound rash and foolish at first glance, but on further study become clear, especially in the movie versions.

The books about the return of Jesus are particularly interesting because, as they have been interpreted, one may enter the kingdom of heaven by simply accepting Jesus as one’s savior and be taken–actually removed from one’s clothes–with him into Heaven.

It is not clear to me where that is, but perhaps I would know more about it if I had studied the Bible more critically. If it is someplace like west Texas, I am not sure I would want to go. On the other hand if it is more like Nice or Carmel-by-the-Sea, then I would think of getting clothes after I arrived.

There are a lot of wars and murders and people killing their brothers and people being crucifiied. Frankly, it was scarier than the soldier’s manual you receive when you enter the military. But not so boring.

There is a real problem with the Bible, and not only with Jesus and his Dad, but with all biblical stories from all faiths, and I have read some, and a few very intensly as a young man…the Greek and later the Roman Gods…pretty much cousins you might say. Famlies very similar. But very, very entertaining Gods. They actually “get it” about being Dieties. It’s about the fun times…and good, solid revenge.

But the problem with any of those stories is that I don’t know what the hell they want me to do. The Hindus contradict the Buddhists and the Shintos contradict the Christians and the Muslims contradict the Mormons.

Listen, I’m glad to do what I’m told, when I’m told, where I’m told to do it. I am nothing if not a good toady. I was a pretty good soldier. Followed orders. Never quite court-martialed. But I don’t know which of all these thousands of different immutable truths is immutable.

And now we’re going to have a new version by the same guys that brought us two wars, a mild Depression or a severe Recession…take your pick….and want to deny health care to my granddaughter…which won’t happen as long as I, too, have a gun. A new version of their idea of truth and beauty…fried chicken, NASCAR fumes, shooting up grade schools, high schools and deciding that all college students should be armed so we can have a total shootout there?

If that’s the new bible, I’ll stick with Zeus. If you disobeyed him you were literally toast.
— Joseph O’Shaughnessy

i can't stop laughing...

In a way, there is precedent for this nonsense. The King James Bible, for all its masterful English prose, is itself not a translation, but merely a “version.” It is a revision of translations such as the Geneva bIble, which had too many notes about the evils of kings. The difference between the King James and the (proposed) King Rush versions is that the KJV was not trying to correct political apostasies in the text.
— rbh

Serious, serious...

If it is a non-profit-work it will be much easier to revise the King James then to start from the beginning.

Easier, but both also lazy, non-scholarly, and unreliable. We’re not talking Sumerian, here, we’re talking about competency in something realistically achievable: koine Greek for the New Testament, Hebrew for the Old Testament. And, if I understand them correctly, they’re not interested in the OT, so that means only competency in koine Greek. (Though there’s a substantial number of transliterations from Aramaic and Hebrew into Greek in the NT, so any true quality translation would require fluency in those languages, as well as a fluency in the relevant cultural history.)

But, putting that objection aside, there’s also the problem that the King James version is not a very reliable translation. With regard to the New Testament, anyone with a small degree of competency in koine Greek today can read the texts which were its base and find numerous translation errors. This is because scholarly competence in classical Greek at the time of the KJV was not that high, for a number of reasons (mostly, though, that they had far fewer texts available from which to derive fluency and a consequentially much smaller body of reference works).

It’s also worth mentioning the Early Modern English, in which the KJV is written, is an archaic and unfamiliar dialect of English for most modern speakers and requires a certain degree of fluency in its own right. Just as many contemporary readers misunderstand Shakespeare (e.g., “O Romeo, Romeo, wherefore art thou Romeo?”), many contemporary readers misunderstand KJV text.

Given this, then a “re-translation” of the Bible beginning with the KJV will compound its unreliable translations with misunderstandings of its text.

It’s hard to imagine a more incompetent supposedly scholarly project. There is no excuse for this sort of thing. Many American evangelicals learn some koine Greek—it’s not asking very much for the Conservapedia folk to attain even the barest minimum competency for such a project.
— Keith M Ellis

The Conservative Bible Project calls for explaining Jesus’ parables about money as “free market parables.” They do not list any examples; however, I would counter that there are no “free market parables.” All the parables that include an illustration of money are of the coming of the Kingdom of Heaven, how Christians are to think about God and treat each other as children of God, or are about stewardship. Although Jesus commends giving liberally (sorry, just couldn’t help myself) and with generosity, he is not giving a Dave Ramsey or Suze Orman seminar on investing or economics. In fact, his anger and rampage over the money changers in the Temple is an example of Jesus condemning unchecked and unethical free market practices.

The Christian Bible Project plan and intent, however, is far more dangerous than just spinning a passage to suit their ends. What they propose is tantamount to presenting another gospel. Hans Kung, the preeminent German Catholic theologian, in his book, The Church (Verlag Herder KG, 1967) says this is schisma of the worst kind:

“When the expression “heresy” is used in the New Testament, not in a neutral sense meaning “school” or “party”, but in a definitely negative sense, it implies something more than the word “scisma”. . .which indicates a “split” in the community based above all on personal quarrellings. “Heresy means a fellowship which questions the whole faith of the ecclesia by presenting “another gospel” (cf. Gal. 1:6-9), and which is therefore in opposition to the ecclesia (p 315).”

Heresy? Perhaps, perhaps not. But the authors of this version walk perilously close to “presenting another gospel” discounting 2000 years of scholarship and orthodoxy.

Dr. David Waggoner, PhD
http://www.extremethinkover.com

TSG (#100) writes:

“Does that mean they are going to edit out the New Testament?”

Edit it, not edit it out. There are a few parts that can stay, e.g.:

Luke 3:14: “Be content with your wages.”

Matthew 20: 15: “Is it not lawful for me to do what I will with mine own?”

Mark 4:25: “For he that hath, to him shall be given: and he that hath not, from him shall be taken even that which he hath.”

But from the OT, some things will have to go, such as all that those pesky prophets said about justice to the poor, too copious to do justice to in this comment. But one chapter I like is Micah 3, in which oppression of the poor is likened to cannibalism.

Then there’s Proverbs 21:13:

“Who stoppeth his ears at the cry of the poor, he also shall cry himself, but shall not be heard.”
— miriam

i don't think they are serious... OMG! They are.

19 Dec 2009 (ROD 17th Anniversary)

10 December, 2009

Socially useless occupations

OK, that’s way too strong. But Alistair Darling’s new super-tax on bank bonuses sounds like a good idea, on first read. Or as Justin Fox puts it, why the heck not?

Are we afraid that the best and the brightest will leave high finance and pursue other occupations? That strikes me as a good thing: everything we know suggests that the rapid growth in finance since 1980 has largely been a matter of rent-seeking, rather than true productivity. (As Paul Volcker says, it’s hard to come up with any clearly productive financial innovations of recent decades other than the ATM).

Or are we worried that it’s just unfair to discriminate against high-earning bankers? Bear with me while I stop laughing. More seriously, the whole sector has just been bailed out at immense taxpayer expense. Some payback seems entirely reasonable.

So, the details need analyzing. But on the face of it this looks entirely reasonable.

10 December 2009

24 November, 2009

it's not over

The Big Story, by Low Chee Kong of the Todayonline

GOVERNMENT interventions around the world may have staved off what was initially touted as the second Great Depression but they have created a dire side effect: Painful lessons have not been learnt as the global economy resumes business as usual.

As Financial Times associate editor and chief economics commentator Martin Wolf laments, there is a palpable air of complacency given how the global economy emerged relatively unscathed.

Speaking to Weekend Today, the renowned British economist-turned-journalist dismissed as "completely laughable" the idea that the global economy is back on the path of sustainable recovery.

Instead, he warns that the global economy could be set for a big, ugly fall should bullish political and business leaders believe too much of their own rhetoric. And if the cards are not played right, a fiscal and currency crisis could be just round the corner - triggering another recession which could usher the end of liberal trade as we know it.

Prominent figures around the world have been proclaiming that the worst is over - backed up by the economic statistics that are, generally, looking better by the day. How would you convince people that the global economic crisis is far from over?

A turnaround is not the end of the crisis - the crisis ends when you get back to where you were before.

The main reason for this turnaround has been massive - indeed completely unprecedented - stimulus policies around the world, particularly in the Western economies and in China. None of this is sustainable in the long run.

At some point, all these exceptional policies will have to be reversed. (Then) the private sector will have to take up the strain of spending. And we are years - and I mean years - away from seeing that sort of private sector upsurge.

One of the main reasons is there was an extraordinary debt accumulation in the households and the financial sector during the boom time. The deleveraging of this debt accumulation is a long-term process and it has barely begun.

Finally, there is a real risk that a fiscal and currency crisis will emerge, affecting some of the world's most important currencies, and particularly, the US dollar.

Public debt is rising very rapidly ... the dollar is under strain and monetary policy is extremely aggressive. It is possible that there will be, at some point, a flight from the dollar which will force higher long-term interest rates in the United States and (set off) another recession.


Some commentators, including yourself, lament the speed at which the crisis has apparently been resolved. They believe that, as a result, lessons have not been learnt ...

We have encouraged the financial sector to go back to doing business as normal but with even more 'too-big-to-fail' firms than before, and even more confidence that they are too big to fail.

That's a recipe for a very substantial financial crisis again at some point in the future ... This does not mean that I think it would have been right to allow another Great Depression but one of the consequences of the tremendous government-led rescue effort is that we may have become too complacent.


What are the 'massive changes' that you believe are still needed to ensure a sustainable recovery?

If export demand is to play a much bigger role in income generation in countries like the US and the United Kingdom then, by definition, other countries in the world, which previously have large surpluses, must undergo a structural shift towards deficit - with demand rising faster than GDP.

At the moment, nearly all the strain (in the global economy) has been taken by increases in public sector demand and exceptional monetary policy designed to maintain private sector spending in the affected economies, rather than a long-term structural rebalancing of the world economy.

The Asian growth model - characterised by export-led growth, strong current account - is no longer a sustainable model because it has simply run out of credit-worthy spenders on the other side of the equation.

So the most pressing change is an adjustment in that model. It would also mean changes in exchange rate policy.

Meanwhile, in the developed countries, there's going to be a huge fiscal consolidation which is going to take many years. And all these changes have to occur together.


You believe that inaction could even mean the end of this era of globalisation. Is that too alarmist?

If the US does not get a healthy private sector-led and export-led growth, unemployment will not fall by any significant amount over the next year or so.

If, at the same time, the US current account deficit starts to expand again while the Chinese current account surplus starts rising again - add to that the possibility of rising oil prices which further exacerbates the global imbalances - then I think it's going to be very difficult to maintain liberal trade.

People underestimate the possibility that, if unemployment remains persistent in the US, the political commitment to open trade is going to collapse. This is a society extremely resistant to high unemployment and there is a very good chance that it's going to last for a very long time.

People are far too complacent, in my view, about the maintenance of the open world economy.


How much has the political dimension been a factor in what is essentially an economic problem?

An event of this kind is political in the highest degree. Just think of some of the political aspects: The imperative to avoid mass unemployment and depression; the immense unpopularity of being seen to help the financial sector; a very large potential for international friction over who is doing the right thing to save the financial sector and the world economy; and, particularly, the potential for conflict between China and the West, particularly the US.

Success or failure in managing the crisis is clearly regarded by policy-makers as determining their ability to hold on to power - that's true in a democratic system and probably even true in a non-democratic system.

I'm sure that one of the reasons the Chinese government was so aggressive in its stimulus programme is that it recognises the danger to political stability of a long-term fall in China's growth rate.

The question is whether the political realities allow policy-makers the right policy choices which would actually deliver results they want ...

To give you one example: At some point we are going to have to have a massive fiscal consolidation in the developed countries where the deficits are so large.

And it's not clear at the moment whether the countries will be able to make the commitments to massive tax rises and expenditure cuts which will be needed. So, that's again politics.



Mr Martin Wolf is associate editor and chief economics commentator at the Financial Times. He will be speaking on Dec 2 at the Global Insights Series organised by the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.

24 Nov 2009

18 November, 2009

But even the dogs eat the crumbs that fall from their masters' table

Banks do God's Work






















Paul Krugman wrote this in Nov 2006:

"Why doesn't Bush get credit for the strong economy?" That question has been asked over and over again in recent months by political pundits. After all, they point out, the gross domestic product is up; unemployment, at least according to official figures, is low by historical standards; and stocks have recovered much of the ground they lost in the early years of the decade, with the Dow surpassing 12,000 for the first time. Yet the public remains deeply unhappy with the state of the economy. In a recent poll, only a minority of Americans rated the economy as "excellent" or "good," while most consider it no better than "fair" or "poor." Are people just ungrateful? ..."

hmm... sounds familiar.

"Yes, Lord," she said, "but even the dogs eat the crumbs that fall from their masters' table." Matthew 15:27 (NIV)
 
 
From Matthew Henry's concise commentary, read for the proper context of the above verse.
 
15:21-28 The dark corners of the country, the most remote, shall share Christ's influences; afterwards the ends of the earth shall see his salvation. The distress and trouble of her family brought a woman to Christ; and though it is need that drives us to Christ, yet we shall not therefore be driven from him. She did not limit Christ to any particular instance of mercy, but mercy, mercy, is what she begged for: she pleads not merit, but depends upon mercy. It is the duty of parents to pray for their children, and to be earnest in prayer for them, especially for their souls. Have you a son, a daughter, grievously vexed with a proud devil, an unclean devil, a malicious devil, led captive by him at his will? this is a case more deplorable than that of bodily possession, and you must bring them by faith and prayer to Christ, who alone is able to heal them. Many methods of Christ's providence, especially of his grace, in dealing with his people, which are dark and perplexing, may be explained by this story, which teaches that there may be love in Christ's heart while there are frowns in his face; and it encourages us, though he seems ready to slay us, yet to trust in him. Those whom Christ intends most to honour, he humbles to feel their own unworthiness. A proud, unhumbled heart would not have borne this; but she turned it into an argument to support her request. The state of this woman is an emblem of the state of a sinner, deeply conscious of the misery of his soul. The least of Christ is precious to a believer, even the very crumbs of the Bread of life. Of all graces, faith honours Christ most; therefore of all graces Christ honours faith most. He cured her daughter. He spake, and it was done. From hence let such as seek help from the Lord, and receive no gracious answer, learn to turn even their unworthiness and discouragements into pleas for mercy.
 
Just being cheeky with the title.
 
18 Nov 2009